“June, She’ll Change Her Tune”
Kudos to Simon and Garfunkel for accurately predicting a transition from rainy May to sun and heat filled June! However, they may have predicted more than the initial summer heat. That’s right, June 1st marked the beginning of the 2016 hurricane season, yet we’ve already had two storms show up early to the party. Hurricane Alex blew through in January, the first Atlantic hurricane in January since Hurricane Alice in 1955. Just last week, Hurricane Bonnie of the Atlantic Ocean, the sixth of her name (FEMA really needs to learn some new “B” names) crashed through some Memorial Day picnics and bar-b-ques, reclaiming the month of May as her own all while reminding us that summer is coming.
While the forecast for this year’s hurricane season is “near-average”, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has made it clear that the forecast may alter as the future is uncertain. Many factors can change and affect the current forecast, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle, which is a cycle affected by winds and sea surface temperatures. Currently NOAA predicts a La Niña summer, meaning decreasing temperatures across the sea surface which causes less wind shear across the Atlantic. Wind shear is the gradient of wind speed, with less wind shear comes higher gusts of wind. Some experts, like AccuWeather, predict that the La Niña pattern will cause the most active hurricane season since 2012. Not only that, but sometimes freak storms blow through like in 1992 when Hurricane Andrew wreaked havoc across the East Coast causing $26 billion worth of damage and killing 65 people.
Unlike President Underwood in the hit Netflix series, “House of Cards”, President Obama is working with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and urging Americans to prepare for the season that has rapidly approached us. As he stated in his address, “What we’ve been seeing is some public complacency slipping in; a large portion of people not having preparedness kits, not having evacuation plans,” he said. “All that has to pick up, because we want to make sure that, although it’s hard to prevent property damage, that we are doing everything we can to prevent loss of life.” He also emphasized the urgency of complying with evacuation orders, an area where Obama says, “We’ve been stagnant.”
Now the question is, how do we follow our President’s pleas and prepare for this uncertainty? Luckily in the age of smart phones we get alerts daily about possible events, so while we suggest you know the hurricane risk of the area where you live, we also know you will get an automatic alert if you are in imminent danger. No subscription required. As President Obama mentioned, emergency kits and evacuation plans are also a must for preparedness. Again, luckily last year, during Hurricane Joaquin, we posted a survival guide to hurricanes. If you need some guidance on types of items to keep in your kits refer to that blog post.
Curcio Law is desperately looking forward to a few weeks sans rain, but we understand that nature is changeable. June may change her tune, restlessly prowling through the night, but prepared we are if hurricane’s take flight!
(I apologize for butchering “April Comes She Will”.)